The Midlands-North West constituency for the European Parliament elections next June will have an extra seat.

The transfer of Laois and Offaly from the South Constituency will make it a five-seater.

While the recommendation of An Coimisiún Toghcháin was far from dramatic it has nonetheless sent political speculation into overdrive.

First up, there is the case of Barry Cowen. The Laois-Offaly TD looks certain to seek the nomination to run.

So too will senators Lisa Chambers and Niall Blaney.

If Barry Cowen were to be successful at a selection convention and later in the election itself, his departure from Leinster House would trigger a by-election next December.

That's a scenario the Government would not relish, and it lends further weight to the theory that there will instead be a general election late next year.

Laois-Offaly TD Barry Cowen looks certain to seek his party's nomination

It what would have been significant development, many in Fine Gael were musing today about the possibility of Mairead McGuinness returning to stand in Midlands-North West.

This logic hinged on the political understanding that a Fainna Fáil politician would ascend to the prestigious European Commission post next summer.

Mairead McGuinness confirmed this evening that she will not be a candidate in the European Parliament elections next June.

She also expressed a willingness to serve as Commissioner beyond next summer but said she fully respected that this is a decision to be made by the Government.

Right now, Charlie McConalogue is regarded by some in Fianna Fáil as a "good bet" to get the Commission role.

Well regarded in the party and under pressure on his home turf over the mica defects issue, a move to Brussels might untangle a difficult political bind.

This would then raise the possibility of Pat the Cope Gallagher returning for the general election campaign.

The 75-year-old is said to be fighting fit, walking 5km every day for the last four years, and still engrossed in constituency issues.

Sinn Féin will, it is anticipated, run two candidates in the expanded five-seat constituency with sitting MEP Chris MacManus certain to be one of them.

He replaced Matt Carthy in 2020 when the Sinn Féin Foreign Affairs spokesperson was elected to the Dáil.

The party won 13% of the first preference vote here last time but based on consistent opinion poll trends it could win far more support next June.

Luke Ming Flanagan

Luke Ming Flanagan is a high-profile Independent MEP and former TD with a solid support base who has been elected twice to the European Parliament.

Another Roscommon-based Independent, Michael Fitzmaurice, is said to be weighing up his options about a possible run for Europe.

Many farmers in the northern part of the constituency believe the TD, (first elected in a by-election in 2014 to replace the newly elected MEP Luke Ming Flanagan) should now focus on the European Parliament.

Although he was described as "reluctant" when the idea was first floated, he is now considering it.

Back in 2019 the Green Party was in contention for a period during count day with its then candidate Saoirse McHugh.

This time around it is Galway-based Senator and party chairperson Pauline O’Reilly who will run for the Greens.

Labour says it will field a candidate in this constituency but does not have a confirmed runner yet.

While the Social Democrats said it is "reviewing" matters in light of today’s announcement.